Real Fibonacci Trading

7/11:

SPY: -$1,314
Hedge: $914.55

7/7

SPY: $4,788
Hedge: -$1,477

If price doesn’t go back down, I’m gonna end up taking a loss on the hedge (although still net profitable on the trade). Should’ve closed it when it was +$5,000 but I didn’t know where price was going to go and I also spent a few days moving and when I came back we were in this rally, lol.

7/5:

SPY: $1,998
Hedge: -$328

waiting for price to make up its mind and decide where to go. Yawn.

TA guys, what is this, a wedge or something?

or like this maybe?

6/27:

SPY: -$8568
Hedge: $4103

Spy closed at $127.94. Just under $4 away from the next buy level.

6/22
SPY: -$7,254
Hedge: $3,517.50

Wow one of the biggest up days we’ve had in a while. Anyone know why?

SPY: -$5,850
Hedge: $2,931

Jun 17th was the SPY ex div date.

0.628 per share * 1,800 shares = $1,130.40 coming my way.

A lot of this type of trading involves waiting. Yawn.

SPY: -$9,000
Hedge: $4,361

May close the hedge tomorrow.

So my SPY position is below the 0 line but as I mentioned earlier I’m not going to sell it.

You have to follow that rule more literally when you’re day trading with tons of margin. I don’t believe this trade is a lost cause and I’m not in any danger of blowing my account (the way I might be if I was heavily leveraged with ES, for example).

As of close today:

SPY: -$10,170
Hedge: approx $4,830.70

The hedge lessens the loss so I’m not really down $10,000 at the moment.

SPY position: approx -$10,224
Hedge: approx $5,379

So, the original base level for the fibonaccis on this trade was $129.55. But as I stated earlier, I’m not going to close out my position there.

However, it provides an important point for some of the hedging.

So with an average cost of $132.70 and a closing price of $129.01, I am currently down -$6,642 on this trade.

Here’s the math so far for the long side:

Long 200 shares SPY @ $134.22
Long 600 shares at $133.32
Long 1,000 @ $132.
Avg cost $132.70
Open P/L: -$6,642

I haven’t discussed hedging yet in this thread but I am up roughly $3,801 on my hedge, bringing the total open P/L to around -$2,841.  On May 31st I started buying SH.

The question I am now dealing with is what to do with the hedge. Keep it open? Add more? Close it out?

This is what trading is all about. Not indicators, not predicting direction, not any of the crap that the gurus try to tell you about.

Question: What do your fib gurus do in positions like this? Lie? Ignore the trades that aren’t going in their favor and supporting their MAGIC FIBONACCI TECHNIQUES? How about you guys who are paying monthly fees for their fib trading rooms? How much money are you making???